Bog-US

Chart showing light crude oil futures

Good Thursday morning beloved sentients. Yesterday’s post saw a reference to this new “news agency” called “Axios” that seemed to have the inside scoop on developments in the USrael War on Iran. I am not familiar with it but noted that others more in tune with news sources than I am were suspicious of it–saying that it was rarely right in its predictions and its press releases seemed to have some association with the price of oil fluctuating wildly during the crisis. Bog-US as it were.

Well, today that view seems to have solidified as is shown in the two reports posted below. I am not familiar with the vagaries of the stock market–or any trading market for that matter so I’ll defer to those who have more familiarity and understanding of those gambling formats.

Please review the two reports below and I will continue thereafter:

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From former CIA analyst Larry Johnson blogmaster at Sonar21

Trump’s Bogus Claims About Progress in Talks with Iran Just Made Some Insider a Lot of Money

“President Donald Trump abruptly paused “Project Freedom” — a US military operation to escort ships through the Iranian-blockaded Strait of Hormuz — roughly 36 hours after it began. According to NBC News, the reversal came after significant backlash from key Gulf allies, particularly Saudi Arabia. Trump announced the operation via social media on Sunday, surprising Gulf partners. In response, Saudi Arabia suspended US access to Prince Sultan Airbase and Saudi airspace, which are critical for providing air cover (fighters, tankers, and defensive umbrella) to ships transiting the strait. A phone call between Trump and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman failed to resolve the dispute. Other allies (e.g., Qatar, Oman) were also caught off guard, with coordination occurring only after the public announcement.

Now here is the kicker:

In response, the Kingdom informed the U.S. it would not allow the U.S. military to fly aircraft from Prince Sultan Airbase southeast of Riyadh or fly through Saudi airspace to support the effort, the officials said.

A call between Trump and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman did not resolve the issue, the two U.S. officials said, forcing the president to pause Project Freedom in order to restore U.S. military access to the critical airspace.

This means that previous plans for a renewed attack on Iran will not happen this week. However, the disinformation put out by the White House made someone a lot of money. The Kobeissi Letter on X has the story:

According to our analysis, ~$920 million worth of crude oil shorts were taken 70 minutes before an Axios report claimed the US and Iran were near a “14-point” deal to end the war.

At 3:40 AM ET today, nearly 10,000 contracts worth of crude oil shorts were taken without any major news. This is equivalent to ~$920 million in notional value, an unusually large trade for 3:40 AM ET.

At 4:50 AM ET, just 70 minutes later, Axios reported that the US is “close” to a “memorandum of understanding” to end the Iran War.

By 7:00 AM ET, oil prices had fallen over -12% with these crude oil shorts gaining approximately +$125 million. Minutes later, Iran launched the “Persian Gulf Strait Authority” and oil prices surged +8%.

Iran’s leader of Iran’s legislative body, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, reacted to the Axios story that claimed a deal was at hand:

The operation “Trust me, guys” has failed; now they have returned to their usual practice of spreading fake news via Axios.

Hopes that Donald Trump was serious about finding a negotiated end to the war with Iran have been obliterated. The Trump team, speaking to the Wall Street Journal, are busy erecting a new meme to justify renewing the attack on Iran. Senior US officials told the WSJ Editorial Board the US demands for an Iran deal:

• 20-year enrichment ban

• Hand over all enriched material

• Attestation it doesn’t seek nuclear weapon

• Dismantle Fordow, Natanz, Isfahan

• Ban on underground nuclear work

• On-demand inspections/penalties for violations

Iran will not, under any circumstances, accept these demands. Trump will likely proclaim that he made Iran a generous offer but they refused it because they are intent on building a nuclear weapon. Sources in the Persian Gulf have been told that the attack originally planned for 7 May is pushed back until the week of 10 May.”

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From What Does it Mean

Iran Declares “Operation Trust Me Bro” Failed After Saudi Arabia Threatens Trump

“The routine “Operation Fauxios” that sees President Trump hiding truth and spreading fake news about the Iran war, this report details, was joined early yesterday morning by the Axios article “Exclusive: U.S. And Iran Closing In On One-Page Memo To End War, Officials Say”, after which it was shockingly revealed: “$920 million worth of crude oil shorts were taken 70 minutes before an Axios report claimed the US and Iran were near a “14-point” deal to end the war…At 3:40 AM ET today, nearly 10,000 contracts worth of crude oil shorts were taken without any major news. This is equivalent to ~$920 million in notional value, an unusually large trade for 3:40 AM ET…At 4:50 AM ET, just 70 minutes later, Axios reported that the US is “close” to a “memorandum of understanding” to end the Iran War…By 7:00 AM ET, oil prices had fallen over -12% with these crude oil shorts gaining approximately +$125 million”.

The greatest “Operation Fauxios” deception being foisted on the American peoples, this report concludes, sees them not being told the truth that their fuel costs are skyrocketing because the United States has been playing a vital role as the world’s “swing supplier” of key energy commodities amid the global oil shortage triggered by the war in Iran—as the United States empties its emergency oil reserves to supply the world because it doesn’t even produce the amount of oil it needs every day, energy experts just warned: “President Donald Trump may soon feel the need to blockade crude oil exports after those exports hit a record high recently”—Senior Advisor Jeff Currie at the American global investment giant The Carlyle Group issued the grave warning yesterday that American oil storage tanks will run empty by 4 July—and it was also revealed today: “China has ordered companies to disregard U.S. sanctions targeting Iranian oil, forcing a direct test of Washington’s ability to enforce its crackdown on Iran…The move represents a shift from years of opaque workarounds to more explicit state-backed resistance, as Beijing signals it will not cooperate with U.S. efforts to cut off a key source of revenue for Iran”.”

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From Suliaman Ahmed’s X account

JUST IN: Senior Iranian official Mohsen Rezaei says Tehran will reject any U.S. plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz unless it includes compensation for war damage.

He said Iran wants “tangible benefits,” not symbolic concessions.

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This just in from Suliaman Ahmed’s X account:

CIA INTELLIGENCE CONFIRM IRAN IS IN A VERY STRONG POSITION AND TRUMP IS IN TROUBLE

3 to 4 months before facing more economic hardship

Iran has 75% of its Mobile Launchers

Iran has 70% of its Missiles

Recover underground storage facilities

Repaired damaged missiles

Source: Washington Post

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Greencrow concludes: How do you know something is bogus? When it defies logic. An example is the US demanding that Iran hand over all its nuclear material and pledge not to build a nuclear deterrent. This is fundamentally illogical because Israel, their “best Satanic buddy” in the Middle East, has nuclear bombs and those bombs aren’t even being inspected by the nuclear watchdog IAEA  Meanwhile, Iran has allowed the IAEA to inspect its facilities. So Iran would be a fool to comply with such a bogus demand.

Illogic is the elephant in the room that destroys all efforts to bring about a just and lasting Peace in the Middle East with Iran. Oh and I am not even getting into Israel’s use of the American military as a “Henchdog” to attack indigenous [real] Semites in order to steal their lands in the Middle East.

Nor am I getting into America’s use of the Middle East oil economy to line the pockets of its corrupt oligarchs and “fixing” the markets so that a few insiders become billionaires while the average worker in Iran and also in the West becomes impoverished by the day.

So, IMO, there’s no chance of peace in the Middle East in the foreseeable future. Trump will have to go to meet with Xi in China hat in hand as an abject failure who has almost single handedly brought economic ruin to the entire global economy.

He will also have to face the debacle that is brewing regarding the FIFA cup where countries have to decide whether to risk sending their athletes to a country that cares so little about human life and health and could start a “kinetic” war at any time with any nation on earth.

Trumpanyahu at this moment in time is a “bird on a wire”.

Stay tuned.